Experts always have a lot of interesting things to say about housing markets. Canada is no different. Recently, they’ve made statements about how they think home sales might move, as well as what might happen with construction & rents. They have also discussed how mortgage renewals could change things. What did they say? Let’s find out.
Key takeaways
You’ll learn about:
- Where home prices & resales are forecasted to go through 2026-2027
- Predictions for housing starts and rental construction
- What experts expect for renewals & mortgage payments
- Forecasts for rents and vacancies
Prices and sales
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) had previously suggested that home resales and prices should pick up during 2025. This data comes from the CMHC’s February 2025 outlook. It claims better incomes & job conditions will affect home resales and prices, in a positive way.
However, by July 2025, they changed their predictions. They warned that home prices will fall by around 2% toward the end of the year, especially in Ontario & British Columbia.
A better 2026?
They believe the pace of home resales & prices will show signs of a modest recovery during 2026-27. CMHC’s Summer 2025 report stated that the current issues with house prices are due to a lack of demand, a slowing economy and increased building costs from tariffs & lack of trade agreements with the United States. They predict that these will be solved toward the end of 2025.
The CMHC’s most recent report predicts that house prices should show signs of a modest recovery after these trade agreements. It predicts Canada’s GDP will start to recover in early 2026. Canadian house prices should follow suit.
Prices may not necessarily change drastically in 2026. But it’s likely that there will be some signs of recovery toward the start of the year.
Construction starts steady
CMHC’s fall 2025 “Housing Supply Report” focused on the first half of 2025. It claims that the number of combined housing starts in Canada’s big cities was nearly the same as the highest numbers in 2024.
The same report flags that builders’ forward expectations remained weak through Q2 2025. The CMHC’s national outlook predicts that housing starts will ease from 2025 through 2027. Apparently, this is due to fewer condo projects. But these figures will still be higher than the 10-year average, so it could be a good sign.
You can also see this in the monthly data. Preliminary figures for September 2025 indicate there was an increase in the annualized pace of starts, compared to August.
How many homes per year?
The CMHC also discussed the supply threshold. Their 2025 “New Framework” report estimates that Canada needs approximately 430,000 to 480,000 housing starts until 2035. Apparently, achieving this number will make houses more affordable for the general Canadian population.
Following delays during the pandemic, builders have started to catch up with construction programs. It’s possible that we’ll see many new properties being completed during 2026, especially rental homes. That’s good news for buyers & renters. The prices may not change much, but it could take off some of the pressure of low supply.
Mortgage renewals in 2025–2026
The Bank of Canada (BoC) also had some things to say. It used mortgage data in July 2025 to predict that 60% of households renewing their mortgages in 2025-26 will have to deal with higher payments.
The bank previously stated that those with 2025 renewals will likely have to pay around 10% more on average, compared to December 2024 payments. For 2026 renewals, the bank predicted a 6% increase.
The bank reduced its policy rate to 2.5% in September 2025. Mortgage rates should fall during Q4 2025 and may continue to do so during 2026. The bank is scheduled to release another overnight rate target on October 29 & it will affect mortgage rates.
However, in its 2025 Financial Stability Report, the bank claims that many of these households will experience income growth. They also said that these homes will have assets that’ll provide some buffer against the increase in mortgage payments. But the risk does still exist.
Macro context for housing
The BoC released a Monetary Policy Report in October 2025 that gives some context to some of these predictions. It revealed that inflation rates are roughly on target. However, underlying measures & trade policy risks are still present. Experts take these factors into account when making predictions for sales & construction, as well as for price movement.
Rents and vacancies
The CMHC’s Mid-Year Rental Market Update from July 2025 revealed some interesting details about rental supply. It found that purpose-built rental supply increased significantly during 2024. The CMHC attributes the increase to federal financing programs.
It predicts that vacancy rates will climb in the majority of major markets through the rest of 2025. That’d be good for renters because it would mean they have more choice & more units competing for their money. It could also lead to slower rent growth.
But it’s not all good news. There are still issues of affordability in areas where turnover rents are higher than normal.
Condo pre-sale activity stays muted through 2026
Unfortunately, the condo market is still suffering from a slowdown. Developers are cautious & buyers are taking their time to choose the ‘right’ property. High borrowing costs and stricter lending, as well as higher construction prices, also have a role to play. These factors have prevented new towers from launching in most cities.
Some projects initially seemed like they were ready to go in 2024. But they’re still not finished. Experts predict there will likely be a few more cancellations before the condos break ground, unless pre-sales pick up soon. They expect 2026 to look similar to 2025. Most launches will focus on smaller or mid-rise buildings, rather than huge high-rises.
Sources: Please see here for a complete listing of all sources that were consulted in the preparation of this article.
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