You’ve probably noticed that the price tags in almost every Canadian grocery store look different. Yes, your cart looks the same, but the costs themselves have changed quite a lot, and it’s something that Canada’s Food Price Report has also noticed.
The typical Canadian family’s annual food spend has been forecast to be $17,571, with meat alone expected to rise by 7%.
It’s mostly down to factors like grocery inflation that are continuing to cause issues. Unfortunately, many Canadian shoppers are left flipping through flyers or even changing how they buy food, simply so they have enough cash to afford it all. Let’s find out more about the $17,500 grocery bill.
What is going to get more expensive?
All the numbers around the grocery price hike can get confusing. It’s time to simplify that.
According to Canada’s Food Price Report, the cost of meat will likely rise by between 5% and 7% in 2026, while vegetables will increase in cost by roughly 3% to 5%. Even the price of going out to eat will be higher because restaurants are expected to increase by 6% in cost.
Bakery items, as well as dairy and eggs, are forecast to be 2 to 4% higher across the year. The smallest increases are for fruit and seafood at 1 to 2%.
But hang on, haven’t we already seen grocery prices increase? Unfortunately, yes. Analysis from the Bank of Canada shows grocery bills have risen by 22% since 2022, while food inflation reached 5% in December 2025.
Why the bill increases when the products don’t change
The $17,500 figure comes from the same Food Price Report, and it’s the estimated maximum annual food cost for a four-person household. Officials calculated the number using the top end of the forecast report, and the main reason it’s so high is down to the little things.
Grocery inflation has affected thousands of prices across the country, instead of a few items that you might notice yourself. The increase in costs for several everyday items causes the total to creep up. Sadly, your weekly list might not change, but how much you’re paying certainly will.
The effect of farm input costs
So why are grocery prices increasing? One of the major reasons is the cost of growing food, and it’s not exactly cheap right now. Data from Farm Credit Canada shows that farmers are generally spending more on things like fertilizer and labour, with these costs later traveling through processors and retailers.
The total cost of running a farm rose by 19.9% in 2022, and it’s been rising ever since.
But thankfully, there are some things you can do to offset some of these costs, and we’ll get into those tips a little later.
Fuel and diesel costs hit the whole supply chain
Let’s not forget about the impact of fuel and diesel costs. In November 2025, the prices of fuel and energy rose by 4.3%, representing the highest increase since January 2025. That number matters.
After all, trucks move practically everything for grocery stores, so when fuel costs rise, shipping costs are only going to follow.
The pressure continues beyond the warehouse to hit the cost of everything you see on the grocery store shelves. Essentially, you’ll have to make up the shortfall by paying more for your groceries.
Producer prices and raw material costs are changing
To get an idea of the cost pressures, you can take a look at StatsCan’s Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) and Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI). The IPPI shows the monthly changes in price for goods produced in Canada, while the RMPI shows how the cost of raw materials changes over time for manufacturers.
On the positive side, the IPPI decreased 0.6% in December but increased 4.9% year over year. The RMPI increased by 0.5% in December and rose 6.4% year over year.
In other words, the cost of making goods is increasing, which is having a knock-on effect on the prices that you have to pay at the store.
Can’t we just grow all our food locally?
You might think that the solution is simply to grow all our food locally. Unfortunately, it’s not that easy.
Global agricultural commodity prices often contribute to Canadian food inflation, regardless of whether it’s grown locally, because farmers have to pay higher costs for feed and ingredients. International trade also plays a big role, too.
Anytime that agricultural costs change globally, Canadian farmers have to deal with the increases as well. However, there are a couple of things you can try doing to avoid some of these larger increases.
More Canadians are changing where they shop
Interestingly, Statistics Canada’s household surveys found that quite a few Canadians have chosen to change their grocery habits because of increasing costs.
86% of Canadians have changed their spending habits, while 71% have admitted to buying less or using fewer grocery items than they did previously.
That doesn’t necessarily mean they make any big change. Sometimes, they’ll check two flyers instead of one, or perhaps rotate between a few nearby stores to help reduce their weekly bill. But it’s clear that Canadians are making some changes.
Frozen foods can help without sacrificing nutrition
How do you deal with these rising prices? Health Canada has the answers for you.
Their Food Guide includes various tips, including recommendations to buy frozen fruits and vegetables because they’re often cheaper than fresh food, but with the same kind of nutrition. There’s also the fact that frozen items last longer.
As such, you’ll likely end up having less food spoiled at home, and that will likely cause you to reduce your food spending.
It’s also a lot easier to cook quick meals when you have a few frozen staples on hand. Say goodbye to last-minute takeout.
Having a weekly use-up night
Speaking of wasted food, one Canadian study found that people can reduce their food waste by up to 33% by having a use-up night. This is where families choose a single night each week to cook whatever they have in their fridge. Yes, it’s that simple.
You have to stop buying more until you’ve used all the leftovers and random ingredients left in your house.
The study found that Canadians spend around $1,100 each year on wasted food, so you could end up saving quite a bit by using what you have.
How loss-leader shopping works
You could also try doing something that economics research refers to as loss-leader shopping. It involves stores selling certain products at the lowest margins possible so that they can get shoppers inside.
As a shopper, you simply need to find the store that’s a loss leader for the products you’re looking for.
A lot of flyers will show off these deals, especially for meat or products for your pantry. But keep in mind that retailers will tend to balance cheap headline items with regular pricing for everything.
A loss leader isn’t going to sell everything dirt-cheap.
Planning simple meals ahead keeps spending steady
Never underestimate the power of meal planning, too. Studies on Canadian food programs found that repeating a few easy dinners by using overlapping ingredients could reduce your grocery spending.
Best of all, you don’t even have to change the meals that you eat.
The goal is to have three or four meals that you know you can rotate. It prevents you from grabbing extra items or making last-minute purchases when you’re already at the store.
Sources: Please see here for a complete listing of all sources that were consulted in the preparation of this article.
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